tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13729569.post8839659104259521555..comments2024-03-23T05:42:07.516-04:00Comments on The Deliberate Agrarian: A Transient and Ephemeral Epoch(Hubbert's Other Peak)Herrick Kimballhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17116051416696885647noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13729569.post-63464502321092331212014-09-20T21:31:50.263-04:002014-09-20T21:31:50.263-04:00The issue is not whether we will have oil. We keep...The issue is not whether we will have oil. We keep find more and more all the time. The real issue is the relative cost to extract the asset from the ground. Back in the hey days of the 50's sinking a well was not a technical marvel. Now we drill ever deeper, offshore, arctic regions, etc. That additional cost for the barrel of oil has to be pass on to the consumer at the pump. <br /><br />What will happen over time is that some energy functions will transition off oil and on to some other energy source. What that is, is up for grabs.Tucanae Serviceshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11935170696138248693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13729569.post-12629062206198645262014-09-13T17:04:42.555-04:002014-09-13T17:04:42.555-04:00I believe that my direction is to learn the land, ...I believe that my direction is to learn the land, plant the land, live on the land, prepare to be able to pay taxes on the land (I OWN)(with saved currency) and teach it to my children. Log everything I have learned and done, so that it can be passed down to my children and then to my future family members.<br />I intend, before I die, to be able to live fully on my land owing nothing I have no debt) and needing nothing to survive. I know that there will be a lack of some things when I'm gone, however I believe the Lord will show me what I am to do, and help me to do all He shows me. <br />It is my prayer that no matter what happens in this world, me, and my family, will continue to love and serve the Lord with all our hearts.<br />It won't be long before I will not need any of what I need today to "make it". I can't wait for that day to come, it's so close. SheilaGnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13729569.post-78334793160091330852014-09-11T12:34:46.692-04:002014-09-11T12:34:46.692-04:00I am more concerned with cost. If prices were to ...I am more concerned with cost. If prices were to escalate due to other forces like taxes to the level of say Norway where taxes make gasoline $9-10 per gallon you then have to decide whether or not to go work and when(say 12 hour days. If those same taxes effected heating oil and transportion fuels to the same amount the transport of food and corporate/chemical based agriculture would be affected. Everything we buy from outside sources would increase in price to a point where really hard decisions would have to be made.<br /><br />CharlieAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13729569.post-87853566725223700862014-09-10T01:17:01.861-04:002014-09-10T01:17:01.861-04:00It is estimated that we have enough available oil ...It is estimated that we have enough available oil in the Texas, N Dakota and other smaller plays to be an energy exporter into the '30s at least. That is, enough to fuel America at present and estimated future rate of consumption and enough left over to export. That is conjecture, a bit anyway, but so is peak oil. Notice fuel prices have been flat over the last five or so years due to increase in supply, not to mention, huge profits have been made by oil producers, and mineral owners here in Texas where I live and elsewhere around the country. So there must be some efficiency in production. You don't need to equal the efficiency of 100 years ago when it just bubbled up out of the shallows, just enough efficiency to turn a profit. The bottom line is you innovate or you run out of resources. We could be discussing "peak whale blubber" but for innovation. Maybe worrying about peak oil and global warming due to fossil fuels is as futile as trying to prop up the buggy whip manufacturer at the turn of the last century. Only pure hubris or foolishness could convince a policy maker of his 100 year plan for energy, climate change or whatever else. No one here so much as saw the iPhone coming 15 years ago. Yes, maybe at some point we run out of oil, but we didn't have to run out of blubber or coal or land lines to develop more advanced technology. I think we have as good of chance of running short of water as fuel..... CHazzercisehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17223272570976848835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13729569.post-23188991945890742652014-09-09T20:14:10.539-04:002014-09-09T20:14:10.539-04:00Everett,
It seems to me that living on a 6,000 ac...Everett,<br /><br />It seems to me that living on a 6,000 acre island, with a population of 1,000 people, 13 miles off the mainland, where your kin have lived for many generations, is an ideal place to be during the decline of Western civilization. You're a smart and decent man to be doing all the things that you are doing for your family. My hat's off to you!Herrick Kimballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17116051416696885647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13729569.post-42269047926247748822014-09-09T19:33:53.229-04:002014-09-09T19:33:53.229-04:00Good comments. There are a lot of things I could s...Good comments. There are a lot of things I could say but I'll limit it. <br /><br />First, I have never had any interest at all in the subject of global warming (or cooling). But if global warming is happening as a result of industrialization, I can't help but think the problem (if it is a man-made problem) is going to correct itself on the right side of "Hubberts other peak."<br /><br />Peak dollar is also more on my mind than peak oil, but I think there is a very close connection between energy and the economic crisis we're currently in. It was a recent economic discussion with Steve St. Angelo, who has studied the correlation between peak oil and the economy, that led me to write this blog post. Mr. St. Angelo is of the opinion that the economy will crash so significantly, and oil extraction efforts will be so economically crippled, that our civilization will never recover. I haven't heard him mention "Hubberts other peak," but he is envisioning that right side of the graph in our near future.<br /><br />Lyle— that's some good history to know. Hubbert's 1976 article, linked my essay above, begins by discussing the history of coal use and how it launched the industrial revolution.<br /><br />Finally, this subject of peak oil, energy, and the economy is so big and so complex that I don't think any one person has a full grasp of the subject. We (the amateurs) all see through a glass darkly. But so do all the so-called experts. <br /><br />That said, from almost all viewpoints, there is a lot of concern about the energy situation and where we're headed as a civilization. There are no easy solutions, only harsh realities. The government will surely not solve these problems. Individual people and families need to come up with their own solutions, and take care of themselves. <br /><br /><br /><br />Herrick Kimballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17116051416696885647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13729569.post-77307215403221948002014-09-09T19:31:10.550-04:002014-09-09T19:31:10.550-04:00I sent this to every member of my family, even the...I sent this to every member of my family, even the teenagers. I recommended they actually read it and then begin to plan accordingly! I have no idea when the bubble is going to break, but I have been trying to position "things" so that if it happens in the near to far future, they just might be able to make it through the the first winter or two. And then be learning all about being in an agrarian world again. They may be pulling the moldboard themselves if they haven't thrown out the one I have stored! Hmmm, cider press,cider, turn to vinegar, preserve food, live another year or so!<br /><br />Have to stop now or I"LL STILL BE RAMBLING IN THE MORNING> thanks for the post! Everetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05992573194167721951noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13729569.post-14477571192576075112014-09-09T17:01:41.763-04:002014-09-09T17:01:41.763-04:00Peak oil is not about supply and demand it is abou...Peak oil is not about supply and demand it is about energy return on investment. We are already using more energy to produce differing types of energy and subsidizing it behind the scenes by devaluing the dollar and stealth tax breaks.<br /><br />It is also about plain economics. There is no use this type until it's gone scenario. Without cheap fossil fuels the entire economy stops and with it mass agriculture like we see today. When agriculture stops the population will decline quickly. The planet cannot sustain but a fraction of the world population we have today without cheap fossil fuels.<br /><br />We will never see an end to oil because the entire thing will fall apart before we use it all up.<br />PioneerPreppyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09269878017447335944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13729569.post-6069445782126255862014-09-09T13:40:16.966-04:002014-09-09T13:40:16.966-04:00Back in the mid 70's people were worried about...Back in the mid 70's people were worried about a global cooling. Global warming came to the scene later. We’ll probably see global cooling coming back en vogue soon. Then it’ll be the warmers’ chance again.<br />People who believe in the theory formerly called "global warming" are trying to change people's behavior via government decree; using legislation to make fossil fuels so expensive that people organize their life to use less of them. I think this is the most generous way to characterize their actions.<br />Fossil fuels are a pandora's box. They cannot be un-learned. Using long-term thinking, we can only guess at how long it will be before these laws (and any new ones) are repealed (how long do countries last?) and fossil fuel becomes cheap again. I'm enough of a realist to know that fossil fuels will continue to be used for energy until the actual cost of producing the fuel (prying the substance from the depths of the earth) is so high that people seek another alternative. Even then, the change will be slow because of the massive inertia of our society (at what point do you sell your car and buy a horse?). <br />Ericnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13729569.post-51358247824871197962014-09-09T11:07:31.281-04:002014-09-09T11:07:31.281-04:00Whether or not we should have ever exploited oil a...Whether or not we should have ever exploited oil as a fuel, I'll leave to other philosophers and moralists; the fact is, we did - and we did it in a big way! The additional fact that it's limited, seems to escape an immature and sinful people, however.<br /><br />While I believe it is wrong to continue to rely so heavily on such a limited resource, it is almost as wrong to go to the other extreme and believe it can be done cold-turkey. A rational and more gradual weaning of ourselves away from dependence, developing truly sustainable energy technologies, would be the way to proceed.<br /><br />Sadly, I doubt we will behave rationally (and morally!) until forced to do so. After all, why do things the (comparatively!) easy way when you can do them the hard way? Expecting big industry - or big anything for that matter - to behave morally is madness; whatever solutions come, I believe will happen at the local level.<br /><br />Regards,<br />David Smith Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13729569.post-71537896992149512362014-09-09T07:21:10.392-04:002014-09-09T07:21:10.392-04:00Peak oil is, as you have stated, about demand outs...Peak oil is, as you have stated, about demand outstripping supply. Interestingly, the projected peak of oil roughly corresponds with the rise of the climate change debate; one goal of the group identified with what was formerly called "global warming" is to wean us off of oil. Thus, and integral part of the debate is a question of alternative energy sources. Early in this debate I remember watching some pseudo news special on television in which they questioned an engineer about the potential for net zero carbon dioxide emissions. He said at that point (2008?) there were only two viable options - bio fuels (most likely ethanol) or atomic power. He said given the projected world-wide electricity demands by 2020, the known uranium reserves in the world could sustain that demand for 25 years before they were exhausted. Or, if we should choose to use bio fuels to meet that demand instead, it would take every acre of farm-able land on earth just to produce the fuel. Remember, England was the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution. They invented the coal mine, and they did so because they had burned up almost every tree making charcoal to fuel their industry. So using fossil fuels began in response to the inability to sustain industrial growth via organic means.Lyle Stoutnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13729569.post-55459297131189756832014-09-09T06:34:54.990-04:002014-09-09T06:34:54.990-04:00Herrick, I had read about peak oil a number of yea...Herrick, I had read about peak oil a number of years ago and dismissed it because of the obvious hand politics plays in making energy extraction more difficult. I’m sure that BP really doesn’t revel in the added expense of drilling oil wells in deep water (Macondo?). I’m sure they would much rather work on terra firma. This is because they are not permitted to work on land as much as they would like (for various reasons). <br />You are looking at this from a different (macro) perspective and I appreciate that. You’re saying that regardless of the politics, or the technologies, eventually demand will outstrip supply based on current trends. Oil production cannot be infinite on a finite Earth.<br />I must admit that this is not something that keeps me up at night. I don’t think a sudden drop off in population will occur because of petroleum becoming unavailable. As petroleum production becomes more expensive, it makes business sense to pursue the strategies that have a lower ROI (like oil sands). Oil wells that weren’t cost effective to operate (and haven’t been run in years) will be switched back on. Drilling will be opened in new areas when the paychecks for allowing exploration on private property become larger. This will lead to a slow decline of petroleum usage caused by the increasing costs. I believe we’re seeing this trend already and society has groaned but eventually adjusted.<br />Personally I’m much more concerned about our central bankers’ belief that they can print dollars forever without adverse effects. Perhaps we can explore the idea of the “Peak Dollar”?<br />Ericnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13729569.post-90148120393822115232014-09-09T02:06:43.135-04:002014-09-09T02:06:43.135-04:00Bravo. Nice post.
Those who believe the propagand...Bravo. Nice post.<br /><br />Those who believe the propaganda and place their faith in tight oil plays are not seeing the bottom line. At this point it isn't even about EROI as it is about currency manipulation. The price on oil has dropped and those companies can only compete now with zero interest rates and tax breaks (funded by us) and they are still hemorrhaging cash.<br /><br />Once the cheap oil is gone the agrarian curve will plummet as well.<br /> PioneerPreppyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09269878017447335944noreply@blogger.com