Dateline: 26 January 2015
Martin Armstrong
I like to listen to a lot of different economic analysts. But I don’t listen to anything presented by the mainstream media. That’s because the mainstream media is clearly a propaganda arm of the government-corporate cartel that now runs America. You know this already, right?
So I listen to (and read) alternative economic discussion on the internet. To a man (and woman), all these independent economic analysts are expecting an economic catastrophe in America's future. For so many economists to agree on something of such magnitude is rare, because economists are well known for having different opinions.
But there is certainly no consensus among these people about exactly how the economy will eventually implode. For example, many have been predicting a hyper-inflationary crash, while a few have been predicting a deflationary crash.
Among the deflationist minority has been Martin Armstrong.
Martin Armstrong is a fascinating fellow. When you first see him, or to listen to him, or read his writings, you might not recognize him for what he is, which is a high level (governments and institutions), world-class economic advisor with an amazing track record of accuracy in his predictions (so the story goes).
Martin is a long-time student of history and, if I understand correctly, he has developed a computer program (based on pi) that looks at historical cycles and predicts upcoming economic events with uncanny precision. I know it sounds a little crazy, but stick with me here.
Martin Armstrong’s computer-model predictions were so correct that he attracted the attention of the FBI. To make a long story short, he spent 12 years in prison, seven years of that time he was in prison for contempt charges. Martin says the government wanted the source code of his computer program, but he wouldn’t give it to them. They accused him of manipulating world financial markets.
Martin Armstrong’s story is being made into a documentary titled The Forecaster. HERE is the link to one trailer of the movie on YouTube. HERE is another trailer link. I'm looking forward to seeing this movie when it is finally out.
You can listen to a recent interview with Martin Armstrong At This Link.
And you can read Martin Armstrong's blog HERE. I get all Martin's blog posts by e-mail (several a day lately). I suspect that every economist in the world is reading Martin Armstrong.
Martin Armstrong's computer model has been telling him that we are in for a significant crisis event on 2015.75. That is his way of saying the 3rd quarter of this year. Specifically, on or just after, October 1, 2015.
We will find out if The Forecaster is right on this call soon enough.
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Martin Armstrong
Quotes About
Empire & Deflation
(from This Blog Post)
"Empires do not die by hyperinflation – that is reserved for the fringe. When an empire dies, it historically has ALWAYS been by deflation/stagflation. How? Real wealth is driven from the aboveground economy into the underground economy where it is hoarded and tucked away. This is why we find hoards of Roman coins. This reduces the velocity of money and commerce collapses. This is ALWAYS AND WITHOUT EXCEPTION how empires die."
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The British Empire did not die of hyperinflation. The pound collapsed in value. It did not inflate into oblivion. The British Empire simply rolled over and died. The decline of the sterling silver penny of England was no different a path than the decline and fall of Rome. The United States will follow the same path and that means there is a risk that it will break apart into regional sections ONLY AFTER the dollar is hit very hard following Europe and then Japan.
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This is fairly simple. All the hyperinflationists can point to is Germany and Zimbabwe. They can offer not a single historical example of how hyperinflation ever destroyed any empire. I have no vested interest in hyperinflation or deflation. I simply do the research and let the evidence speak for itself. This is just not a personal opinion issue in the least. Both will lead to the same end result – the death of an empire. Why must there be an argument over such nonsense? It is DEAD from fiscal mismanagement!
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When an empire dies that is the major reserve of all nations. We must be concerned about a complete meltdown and the breakup of the nation long-before hyperinflation would even be possible.
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19 comments:
Our area never really recovered from 2000 and clearly not 2008 even though the local network TV keeps pointing out how wonderful things are. When the collapse happens the government sucking masses will be outraged at having been lied to but it will be too late to do much other than burn their own neighborhoods by then. It is hard to grasp deflation as I see inflation when I look at prices but then the graph may spike up before going down, strange things happen.
Yes, even prophesies are pointing to the fact, America will fall this year, economically. Having stood, folks, stand firm: so saith the Bible.
Yes, much of the middle class is under pressure in the US. It's not the end of the world, just the beginning of globalization.
Until or unless we kill ourselves or run out of cheap energy, there is nothing that is going to stop this train.
28 Sep 2015 is the fourth occurrence of the 2014-2015 blood moon tetrad which has happened during Yah's feasts. The last one, (during Sukkot) occurs in tandem with Mr Armstrong's prediction. Curious...
Anon. #1,
If I remember correctly, M. Armstrong blogged recently about Obama's State of the Union speech, and stated that Obama wants to tax the rich more. But the definition of "rich" is coming down such that anyone who is not 100% dependent on the government is "rich." That may be somewhat exaggerated, but it makes an important point.
Yes, the middle class (and working lower class) is going to suffer greatly as the powers that be continue to tax in ever more creative and intrusive ways.
And, no, it won't be the end of the world, but it will be the end of the world as America has known it.
The Swiss currency trouble this past week can give us a window into possible scenarios.
The Swiss decoupled the value of the franc from the bankrupt Euro. Free from artificial ties to a debt laden currency the franc rose in value relative to the Euro. It became 'stronger'(ie. less francs buy more stuff)
The currency speculators who bet on the value of currency are able to place those bets using leverage. They are able to bet $100 by placing just $2 down for each hundred they bet. This works great if you win the bet. However if you lose, you are liable for the entire hundred. So they lose 50 times what they had put down out of their own pockets. The 'small disaster' last week cost various entities $300 billion in less than a day. A couple institutions were ruined, one or two were bailed out by other entities, and I'm sure numerous individuals were financially ruined. Most stock, bond, currency, and commodity markets allow such leverage.
When money disappears in an exponential way like that, you will get deflation. The banks and government fear deflation because they hold large amounts of debt, and need inflation to keep the ponzi scheme going. When dollars become scarce they are worth more, which is great for people and organizations without debt, but deadly for those with large debt and interest payments. This is the reason the Fed has done the QE in an effort to induce inflation in a deflationary climate.
Partick—
The Swiss saw the handwriting on the wall and cut their losses by unpegging from the Euro. It was economic self-defense and a now-obvious crack in the dam.
Thanks for the explanation.
I, too, was wondering about the correlation with the blood moons. There are many Christians predicting catastrophic happenings after or during the forth blood moon.
Personally, I don't have much interest in, or put much faith in, any extra-biblical prophecies, dreams, or visions. Been there, done that, more than once in the past.
Blood moons and "The Harbinger" are interesting and there may be something to them. I sure don't know. But, again, I'm hesitant to invest a lot of time or thought in them.
Please understand that I'm NOT saying this to be critical of anyone who may be interested in, or emotionally invested in any of these things.
There is a Rome, a Zimbabwe, a Germany and a Greece today. When their empires died what really happened was the governments died. America may be destine to fail because of the leader's bad decisions but the people always live on. The crisis for us (the people) is a 50-50 bet; bet wrong an you are in financial ruin.
Bet on deflation and keep your cash safe, it will buy you much more after the disaster. If inflation comes first your cash will be useless. Bet on inflation and buy tangible goods today and you will experience increased value in the future. If deflation comes first you will wish you waited.
Governments come and go what really matters is the choice we make. I am just angry that I have to make a 50-50 bet all the while being taxed at a higher and higher rate.
Wow, lots of good reading in Martin's blogs. This has been an eye opener to me. I found this article very enlightening:
http://armstrongeconomics.com/research/panics/
So if the panic that we are about to go through is but a stepping stone to something greater, then I can't wait to see how this all unfolds.
Thanks again for your mind expanding posts!
Mr Armstrong may be a good researcher and analyst, but he is not a good writer. I can hardly understand what he is saying much of the time because the punctuation and sentence structures are so awkward.
His writings would carry more weight if they were properly edited.
Johathan,
He certainly does have a problem with his spelling, punctuation, and such.
I alluded to it when I wrote: "when you first... read his writings you might not recognize him for what he is..."
It's odd because I'm sure he could afford to hire a good editor, and he must realize he could use one.
Still, I think he is worth trying to decipher.
Ron C—
Thanks for that link. I hadn't read it.
Yes, if MA proves to be correct in his 2015.75 prediction, it is just a part of the cyclical history of financial panics and creative destruction, or so it would appears.
But I can't get Walter Prescott Webb's boom hypothesis of modern history out of my mind. I think Webb was on to something significant and, if so, how does it affect these recurring economic cycles as we get further and further away from the worldwide prosperity that came and went with the the frontier? (as Webb explained it)
Armstrong takes a bigger view of the worldwide economic situation, and I think he may take the "butterfly effect" into consideration more than most, but do his vaunted computer models give any consideration to Webb's "frontier hypothesis"? I have a feeling they don't.
I am inclined to think, even with predictable cycles, we are still entering uncharted waters, much as Webb predicted back in the 1950's.
For anyone reading this who is not familiar with Walter Prescott Webb's "Boom Hypothesis," I have a link to an explanation on the sidebar.
Patrick's comment has stirred me to think; the idea that QE is intended to create inflation in a deflationary climate is one of the best explanations I have heard as to why all of the fiat currency has not created BIG inflation... Thanks
I like the school of Austrian Economics when studying out these subjects. The Mises Institute (mises.org) is a good place to bounce ideas against. Here is an interesting article on the subject of Deflation...
http://mises.org/library/deflation-really-bad-economy
Jon in Indiana
Coming in a little late to the discussion but no matter. There is nothing saying we can't have both deflation and inflation at the same time. How does that work you say?
First you have to split the economy up rather than look at is as a monolithic whole. There is nothing saying that they could be a depression in commodity prices. And yet have inflation in places like financials and manufacturing. Imagine a situation like the late 70's stagflation only 10x worse.
The real trigger for me is what happens in the dollar market. Most Americans don't realize that for every dollar they have in their pocket there are two dollars out there in the world beyond our borders. What happens if tomorrow the rest of the planet decided they did not want $$ anymore? Nearly instantly it will take $3 to buy what $1 used to as all those foreign dollars will come home to roost.
The Russians & Chinese have open up a system to compete with SWIFT. Both countries are buying gold at a furious rate I suspect to become the reserve currency once a dollar collapse is manipulated.
We shall see.
Patrick Kyle's comment in this thread says it all - perfect explanation of what's going on. Our only hope as individuals or even as a nation is to turn back to Christ.
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